Australia's renewable energy sector is experiencing a surge in potential capacity, with the country's 'probable' pipeline reaching an impressive 32GW. This significant jump in just one week, from 23,962MW to 32,277MW, is a testament to the country's commitment to sustainable energy sources. The addition of over 10GW of renewable energy capacity across the National Electricity Market (NEM) and Western Australia, through the registration of CIS Tenders 5, 6, and 7, has played a pivotal role in this growth. These tenders have allocated a substantial 1.9GW in Western Australia and 7.8GW across the NEM, with wind energy dominating the results. Additionally, CIS Tender 6 introduced 3,683GWh of standalone battery energy storage, further enhancing the sector's capabilities.
The 32GW probable figure is a cumulative result of the CIS tender tranches loading the pipeline over the past 18 months. This growth has led to a widening gap between the probable and committed categories, currently standing at approximately 24,900MW. This gap highlights a structural challenge that has been building since the CIS programme began generating large tender outcomes. The process of moving from contract award to financial close involves grid connection agreements, state and federal planning approvals, financing arrangements, and offtake contracts, all of which take time and can slow down the conversion of contracts into construction starts.
Despite the growth in the probable pipeline, the committed queue has not kept pace. The accredited fleet, which includes projects that have been commissioned and are generating electricity, stood at 29,542MW as of the week ending 31 May 2026, up from approximately 24,000MW in early 2024. However, the current committed queue of 7,354MW is below the 2022 peak of around 8,000MW, despite the probable pipeline being four times larger. This discrepancy raises questions about the pace of coal retirements and the federal government's target of 82% renewables by 2030.
The CER's modelling, published in its December quarter 2025 market report, projected that between 6-16GW of capacity could reach a financial investment decision by the end of 2027. This projection reflects the uncertainty around how quickly the current probable pipeline will convert. The scale of the probable pipeline provides a degree of insurance against individual project attrition, as historically, not every project that reaches probable status converts to committed. With the probable queue now at 32GW, Australia has a larger buffer against delays and cancellations, ensuring a more stable and sustainable energy future.
In conclusion, Australia's renewable energy sector is experiencing a significant surge in potential capacity, with the probable pipeline reaching 32GW. However, the gap between the probable and committed categories highlights a structural challenge that needs to be addressed. The sector's growth and the federal government's targets depend on a balanced approach that ensures a steady pace of coal retirements and a robust conversion of the probable pipeline into committed projects.
